With the election less than two weeks away, it’s time to start taking a serious look at what the polling on the presidential and senate races tell us. The data that follow are current (as of earlier today) and were gleaned from two very reliable and trustworthy sources; i.e. Real Clear Politics (RCP, 1) and Nate Silver’s Projects Five Thirty Eight (2). Each of the two will be considered in that order.
RCP collects the results of all reputable recent polls and then averages their respective outcomes. All of the polls aggregated showed HRC with anywhere from a two to eight point lead, nationally. The mean gave Ms. Clinton a 4.4 percentage point lead (47.8% vs. 43.4%).
As for the senate, there are seven states that have been placed in the “battleground” category. In six of the seven (3), the Democrat candidate is leading by anywhere from 1.6 to 8.0 percentage points. RCP puts the likelihood of a “flip” of the upper chamber’s majority at just under 60% in favor of the Democrats.
At Projects 538 (P-538), things are also looking bright for the Democrats and HRC in particular. Her chances of winning the presidency have been pegged at 84.7% with Primadonald at 15.3. This could translate into a big win of 333 Electoral College votes and a resounding victory.
P-538 views the opportunity for the Democrats to regain a senate majority at 66.4% compared to 33.6% for the GOP. Five senate races are referred to as “in play”; they include Nevada, Missouri, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Indiana. In each, the Democrat’s candidate is either ahead or tied with their Republican opponent.
Keep in mind that all the preceding figures are projections, not certainties. That means you should take nothing for granted and be sure to get out and vote. If anything is to get done when the new Chief Executive and Congress take office, it is essential that the former and senate majority reside with one party (4). Legislation passed and approved by the president would then go to the House and put maximum pressure on the GOP majority there to drop their obstructionist ways and actually govern.
This campaign, featuring two unlikable candidates and high levels of acrimony, can’t end too soon.
1,2. If you want to follow projections for the next several days right up to the election, go to http://www.realclearpolitics.com and/or http://www.projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast.
3. The one state where the Republican senate candidate is leading is Ohio where incumbent Rob Portman has a sizeable lead on his opponent Ted Strickland.
4. There is little chance that the GOP majority in the House will change.