With the election less than a week away and three million votes already cast, , let’s look at various poll results and see what they tell us about the likely outcome in the race between HRC and Primadonald, at least as of today.

Real Clear Politics

This source takes the results of all credible national polls conducted within the last week and calculates the average of all the respective outcomes. HRC is seen as having a razor-edge 1.7% advantage over her opponent.

Moody Analytics

Since 1980, this organization has produced a perfect record of predicting which party (1) will win the White House. Their forecast is based solely on what economic indicators signal rather than on such variables as candidate favorable/unfavorable ratings, and voter enthusiasm. Moody sees HRC as sweeping to a resounding win with 332 Electoral College votes.

538

This organization, also with an outstanding predictive record, sees HRC with a 68.9% chance of winning, down substantially (2) from a high of over 82%. 538 also lays out scenarios for the so-called “battleground” states. Those will be presented next and solely with reference to HRC chances of winning each state’s Electoral College votes:

  1. Nevada – 53.1%; not expected to change up or down before the election.
  2. Pennsylvania – 78.2% with the expectation that this score will rise.
  3. Florida – 51%; not expected to change up or down before the election.
  4. Iowa – 34.3%; not expected to change before the election.
  5. Ohio – 35.7%; not expected to change before the election.
  6.  North Carolina – 51.3% with the expectation that this score will rise.
  7.  Virginia – 82.7% with the expectation that this score will rise. t

One of the states cited above deserves special attention; i.e. Florida. If HRC should win there, this race would be over. That is because without the Sunshine State’s Electoral College votes in his column, Primadonald has absolutely no chance of winning the presidency. Since Florida runs on EST, pay close attention to the results coming from there. They will signal whether we have a short or long  “watch night” ahead of us.

Lastly, Utah, a state not previously cited, takes on special significance because on the ballot there is an independent candidate named Evan McMullin who happens to be polling well. Specifically, he is running ahead of HRC and behind Primadonald by roughly eight points (36.4 vs. 28.7). If Trump loses Utah and its’ six Electoral College votes, he will have to carry a state that he has not been expected to win to make up for that loss.

Summary

Historically, presidential races have tightened as the election draws near. That is certainly happening here. The eventual result could be a blow-out or a gossamer-thin win for one of the two candidates. The odds remain in HRC’s favor, but they have changed and no longer point to a sure victory for her.

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  1. Of all polls, Moody Analytic stands out as the exception, predicting party winner, not candidate.
  2. To at least some extent, this drop may reflect the impact of FBI Director James Comey’s announcement that the Bureau was moving ahead with an examination of still more recently uncovered e-mails that may have come from HRC’s notorious private server.

 

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